← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sebastian Stockbridge, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe win | 52% | 52% | 1.76 | fair |
| Barrow win | 25% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crewe −0.5 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Barrow −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Max Sanders · Crewe |
| 13' | ⚽ | Tommi O'Reilly · Crewe |
| 17' | ⚽ | Calum Agius · Crewe |
| 18' | 🟨 | Ben Jackson · Barrow |
| 31' | ⚽ | — · Barrow |
| 38' | ⚽ | Josh March · Crewe |
| 40' | 🟨 | Mickey Demetriou · Crewe |
| 48' | 🟨 | Reece Hutchinson · Crewe |
| 65' | 🟨 | Scott Smith · Barrow |
| 65' | 🟨 | Freddie Anderson · Barrow |
| 90' | 🟨 | Calum Agius · Crewe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crewe | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Alexandra Stadium |
| 169.00 |
| 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1459.92 | 1414.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.74 | -5.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 36.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -0.35 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.48 |