β EFL League Two 2025-26 Β· Sat, Jan 17, 12:30 PM UTC Β· ref: Darren Drysdale, England
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Walsall win | 38% | 40% | 2.45 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 33% | 31% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Tranmere +0.25 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Walsall +0.25 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 60% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 40% | 2.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand