← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: James Durkin, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 45% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| Gillingham win | 27% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Gillingham −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 52% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 48% | 2.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Filozofe Mabete · Swindon |
| 59' | ⚽ | Ryan Tafazolli · Swindon |
| 60' | 🟨 | Josh Andrews · Gillingham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Tom Nichols · Swindon |
| 83' | 🟨 | Max Clark · Gillingham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jake Tabor · Swindon |
| 87' | 🟨 | Armani Little · Gillingham |
| 89' | 🟨 | Connor Ripley · Swindon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aaron Drinan · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 4 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | County Ground |
| coach days | 153.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1550.08 | 1475.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.07 | -10.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | — |
| league points | 43.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 59.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -1.35 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.32 |