← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sam Allison, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham win | 43% | 41% | 2.15 | fair |
| Chesterfield win | 29% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Oldham −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Adam Lewis · Chesterfield |
| 51' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Chesterfield |
| 59' | 🟨 | Kane Drummond · Oldham |
| 59' | ⚽ | Kane Drummond · Oldham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Reagan Ogle · Oldham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jamie Robson · Oldham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟥 | Kyle McFadzean · Chesterfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oldham | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Boundary Park |
| coach days | 153.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1277.60 | 1369.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.69 | 22.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.00 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| league points | 31.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.62 | 0.16 |
| solidity v1 | 0.29 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.54 | 28.40 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.95 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.31 |