← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Zac Kennard-Kettle, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 54% | 51% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Accrington win | 20% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Notts County −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Alex Henderson · Accrington |
| 17' | 🟨 | Matthew Platt · Notts County |
| 35' | 🟨 | Josh Woods · Accrington |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alassana Jatta · Notts County |
| 45' | 🟨 | Shaun Whalley · Accrington |
| 70' | 🟨 | Donald Love · Accrington |
| 72' | ⚽ | Shaun Whalley · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthew Dennis · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Iorpenda · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jacob Bedeau · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| coach days |
| 184.00 |
| 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1541.40 | 1439.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.65 | 10.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 39.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 63.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -0.60 |
| solidity v1 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.51 |