← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Elliott Swallow, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere win | 48% | 47% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Barrow win | 24% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barrow −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Tranmere −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Niall Canavan · Barrow |
| 8' | ⚽ | Ben Jackson · Barrow |
| 18' | ⚽ | Charlie Raglan · Barrow |
| 32' | ⚽ | — · Barrow |
| 35' | 🟨 | Rekeem Harper · Barrow |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jordan Turnbull · Tranmere |
| 50' | ⚽ | Patrick Brough · Tranmere |
| 64' | 🟨 | Niall Canavan · Barrow |
| 64' | 🟥 | Niall Canavan · Barrow |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nathan Smith · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟨 | Scott Smith · Barrow |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 25 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tranmere | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Prenton Park |
| coach days |
| 58.00 |
| 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1453.42 | 1403.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.31 | -37.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 29.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.56 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.20 | -1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 1.18 |