← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Speedie, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 37% | 31% | 2.45 | fair |
| Chesterfield win | 35% | 39% | 2.65 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Notts County +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Chesterfield +0 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 49% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 51% | 1.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Chesterfield |
| 19' | 🟨 | Tom Naylor · Chesterfield |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jamie Grimes · Chesterfield |
| 48' | 🟨 | Matthew Dennis · Notts County |
| 65' | ⚽ | Lee Bonis · Chesterfield |
| 68' | 🟨 | Nick Tsaroulla · Notts County |
| 76' | ⚽ (og) | Kelle Roos · Chesterfield |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lewis Macari · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chesterfield | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | SMH Group Stadium |
| coach days | 147.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1368.05 | 1391.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.15 | 8.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 35.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | 0.74 |
| solidity v1 | -0.72 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.21 | 26.89 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.94 |