← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Eley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury win | 40% | 36% | 2.32 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 33% | 31% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Cheltenham +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Hakeeb Adelakun · Cheltenham |
| 31' | ⚽ | Jake Bickerstaff · Cheltenham |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Isaac Hutchinson · Cheltenham |
| 63' | ⚽ | John Marquis · Shrewsbury |
| 70' | 🟨 | Joe Day · Cheltenham |
| 73' | 🟨 | William Boyle · Shrewsbury |
| 89' | 🟨 | Arkell Jude-Boyd · Cheltenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tommy McDermott · Shrewsbury |
| 90' | 🟨 | Taylor Perry · Shrewsbury |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Whaddon Road |
| coach days | 147.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1430.96 | 1380.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.54 | -9.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.90 | 69.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| league points | 24.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 60.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -1.44 |
| solidity v1 | -0.33 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.10 |