← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Coy, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham win | 45% | 53% | 2.05 | value: +10% |
| Tranmere win | 28% | 21% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oldham −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Tranmere −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 47% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 53% | 1.98 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Michael Mellon · Oldham |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jordan Turnbull · Tranmere |
| 40' | 🟨 | Joe Garner · Oldham |
| 41' | ⚽ | Charlie Whitaker · Tranmere |
| 47' | ⚽ | Michael Mellon · Oldham |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jake Caprice · Oldham |
| 61' | ⚽ | Michael Mellon · Oldham |
| 68' | 🟥 | Mike Fondop · Oldham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Matthew Hudson · Oldham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oldham | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Boundary Park |
| coach days |
| 141.00 |
| 49.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1398.73 | 1458.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.74 | 17.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.00 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 24.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.79 | -1.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.89 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 0.93 |