← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephen Parkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 39% | 40% | 2.35 | fair |
| Gillingham win | 33% | 31% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham −0.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Bradley Dack · Gillingham |
| 28' | 🟨 | Lewis McCann · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Graydon · Fleetwood Town |
| 48' | 🟨 | Finley Potter · Fleetwood Town |
| 52' | 🟨 | Armani Little · Gillingham |
| 53' | ⚽ | Ryan Graydon · Fleetwood Town |
| 58' | 🟨 | Elliott Nevitt · Gillingham |
| 85' | ⚽ | Zech Medley · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 141.00 | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1323.25 | 1320.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.58 | -6.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.57 |
| league points | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | -0.90 |
| solidity v1 | -0.13 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.60 | 27.02 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.38 |