← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ross Joyce, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere win | 37% | 37% | 2.45 | fair |
| Crewe win | 36% | 36% | 2.57 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tranmere +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Crewe +0 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 49% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 51% | 2.03 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Max Sanders · Crewe |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nathan Smith · Tranmere |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cameron Norman · Tranmere |
| 45' | 🟨 | Adrien Thibaut · Crewe |
| 45' | ⚽ | Max Sanders · Crewe |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jayden Joseph · Tranmere |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Emre Tezgel · Crewe |
| 63' | 🟨 | Lewis Billington · Crewe |
| 71' | ⚽ | Tommi O'Reilly · Crewe |
| 82' | ⚽ (og) | James Connolly · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron McGowan · Tranmere |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tranmere | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Prenton Park |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 42.00 |
| 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1480.16 | 1461.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.18 | -4.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 26.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.00 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 2.01 |