← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Wed, Dec 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Edward Duckworth, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe win | 61% | 57% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
| Newport County win | 17% | 20% | 5.50 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newport County −1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Crewe −1 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 43% | 2.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Emre Tezgel · Crewe |
| 45' | 🟨 | Courtney Baker-Richardson · Newport County |
| 48' | ⚽ (og) | James Connolly · Newport County |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jordan Wright · Newport County |
| 61' | 🟨 | Anthony Driscoll-Glennon · Newport County |
| 64' | 🟨 | Courtney Baker-Richardson · Newport County |
| 64' | 🟥 | Courtney Baker-Richardson · Newport County |
| 78' | ⚽ | Josh March · Crewe |
| 81' | 🟨 | Charlie Finney · Crewe |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cameron Antwi · Newport County |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crewe | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Alexandra Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 131.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1466.56 | 1320.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.10 | -1.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| league points | 27.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 11.20 | 11.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 2.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.05 |