← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Tue, Dec 9, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Andrew Miller, England
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Barrow win | 35% | 31% | 2.57 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 34% | 35% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 2.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Barrow +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Tranmere +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 62% | 53% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 47% | 2.80 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand