← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aaron Farmer, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury win | 38% | 44% | 2.40 | value: +6% |
| Gillingham win | 33% | 29% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham −0.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Shrewsbury −0.25 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 61% | 1.85 | value: +13% |
| Over | 48% | 39% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | George Lloyd · Shrewsbury |
| 22' | ⚽ | Luca Hoole · Shrewsbury |
| 34' | 🟨 | William Boyle · Shrewsbury |
| 37' | ⚽ (og) | Sam Stubbs · Gillingham |
| 45' | ⚽ | George Lloyd · Shrewsbury |
| 57' | 🟨 | Josh Andrews · Gillingham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ismeal Kabia · Shrewsbury |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Robbie McKenzie · Gillingham |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lenni Rae Cirino · Gillingham |
| 86' | ⚽ | Elliott Nevitt · Gillingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | The Croud Meadow |
| coach days |
| 120.00 |
| 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 3.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1381.02 | 1487.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.60 | -17.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| league points | 16.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 55.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.49 | -1.94 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.38 | -1.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.16 |