← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jacob Miles, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 38% | 41% | 2.45 | fair |
| Swindon win | 36% | 32% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Swindon +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Finley Munroe · Swindon |
| 10' | ⚽ | John Fleck · Chesterfield |
| 39' | 🟨 | Devan Tanton · Chesterfield |
| 61' | ⚽ | Joe Snowdon · Swindon |
| 63' | 🟨 | Aaron Drinan · Swindon |
| 69' | 🟨 | Finley Munroe · Swindon |
| 75' | 🟨 | Paul Glatzel · Swindon |
| 84' | 🟨 | Connor Ripley · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Finley Munroe · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟥 | Finley Munroe · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chesterfield | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | SMH Group Stadium |
| coach days |
| 120.00 |
| 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1524.53 | 1532.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.29 | -1.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| league points | 28.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -0.09 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.73 |