← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Richie Watkins,
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 44% | 41% | 2.05 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 31% | 30% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.70 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Tranmere +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Jonathan Leko · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 9' | ⚽ | Charlie Whitaker · Tranmere |
| 23' | 🟨 | Sam Finley · Tranmere |
| 27' | ⚽ | Charlie Whitaker · Tranmere |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jayden Joseph · Tranmere |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jon Mellish · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jonathan Leko · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 79' | 🟥 | Jonathan Leko · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 82' | ⚽ | — · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jon Mellish · Milton Keynes Dons |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tranmere | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Prenton Park |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 21.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1285.45 | 1331.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.17 | 43.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 19.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 62.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -1.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 31.14 | 29.11 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.02 |