← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver Yates, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 39% | 43% | 2.35 | fair |
| Grimsby win | 34% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Grimsby −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Swindon −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 53% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Ollie Palmer · Swindon |
| 13' | ⚽ | Billy Bodin · Swindon |
| 22' | ⚽ | Kieran Green · Grimsby |
| 40' | 🟨 | Gavin Kilkenny · Swindon |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Danny Rose · Grimsby |
| 67' | 🟨 | Géza Dávid Turi · Grimsby |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jake Tabor · Swindon |
| 86' | 🟨 | George McEachran · Grimsby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | County Ground |
| coach days | 113.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1369.85 | 1313.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.19 | -23.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 2.02 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| solidity v1 | 0.86 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.49 | 27.93 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.68 |