← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Simon Mather, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 42% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Colchester win | 29% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Colchester −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Notts County −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 46% | 2.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (og) | Kane Vincent-Young · Notts County |
| 14' | ⚽ | Harry Anderson · Colchester |
| 28' | 🟨 | Kyreece Lisbie · Colchester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Scott Robertson · Notts County |
| 56' | ⚽ | Micah Mbick · Colchester |
| 59' | 🟨 | Arthur Read · Colchester |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kane Vincent-Young · Colchester |
| 90' | ⚽ | Will Goodwin · Colchester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| coach days |
| 144.00 |
| 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1545.95 | 1497.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.98 | 28.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| league points | 28.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | -0.59 |
| solidity v1 | 1.28 | 0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 1.09 |