← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Rock, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe win | 41% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
| Chesterfield win | 31% | 29% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Crewe −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 48% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 52% | 1.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | James Berry · Chesterfield |
| 24' | ⚽ | Lee Bonis · Chesterfield |
| 34' | 🟨 | Chey Dunkley · Chesterfield |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Emre Tezgel · Crewe |
| 40' | 🟨 | James Golding · Crewe |
| 45' | 🟨 | James Connolly · Crewe |
| 47' | ⚽ | Calum Agius · Crewe |
| 65' | ⚽ | Dilan Markanday · Chesterfield |
| 69' | ⚽ | James Connolly · Crewe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crewe | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Alexandra Stadium |
| coach days |
| 113.00 |
| 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1475.00 | 1524.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.52 | 15.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 26.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.54 | 1.67 |