← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver Langford, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere win | 53% | 57% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 22% | 18% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Tranmere −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 51% | 1.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (og) | James Wilson · Tranmere |
| 11' | ⚽ | Joe Ironside · Tranmere |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jordan Thomas · Cheltenham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nathan Smith · Tranmere |
| 73' | 🟨 | Richard Smallwood · Tranmere |
| 77' | ⚽ | Josh Martin · Cheltenham |
| 85' | 🟨 | Luke Young · Cheltenham |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Joe Day · Tranmere |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tranmere | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Prenton Park |
| coach days | 14.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1278.02 | 1246.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.29 | 41.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| league points | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | -0.64 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 31.46 | 28.14 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 0.44 |