← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gavin Ward, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 48% | 56% | 1.91 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 25% | 18% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tranmere −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Swindon −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 57% | 1.88 | value: +7% |
| Under | 49% | 43% | 1.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Ollie Palmer · Swindon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Filozofe Mabete · Swindon |
| 56' | 🟨 | Cameron Norman · Tranmere |
| 57' | 🟨 | Connor Jennings · Tranmere |
| 66' | 🟨 | Sam Finley · Tranmere |
| 74' | ⚽ | Ollie Palmer · Swindon |
| 88' | ⚽ | Kristian Dennis · Tranmere |
| 89' | 🟨 | Finley Munroe · Swindon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Finley Munroe · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | County Ground |
| coach days | 99.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1363.61 | 1284.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.11 | 10.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 26.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 14.04 | 10.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -1.06 |
| solidity v1 | 1.29 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.87 | 29.65 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 0.92 |