← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ben Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall win | 50% | 50% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Newport County win | 23% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Walsall +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Newport County +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 49% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 51% | 2.08 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Kai Whitmore · Newport County |
| 17' | ⚽ | Daniel Kanu · Walsall |
| 19' | ⚽ | Ryan Finnigan · Walsall |
| 37' | ⚽ | Ryan Finnigan · Walsall |
| 44' | ⚽ | Gerard Garner · Newport County |
| 48' | 🟨 | Habeeb Ogunneye · Newport County |
| 50' | 🟨 | Aden Flint · Walsall |
| 52' | ⚽ | Rico Browne · Walsall |
| 57' | 🟨 | Sammy Braybrooke · Newport County |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ben Lloyd · Newport County |
| 61' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newport County | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Rodney Parade |
| 🟨 |
| Connor Barrett · Walsall |
| 65' | 🟨 | Kai Whitmore · Newport County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 99.00 | 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1347.42 | 1528.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.84 | -9.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.76 |
| league points | 11.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 62.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 14.04 | 14.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | -1.96 |
| solidity v1 | -0.64 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -2.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.25 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 0.63 |