← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Parsons, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 55% | 56% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Accrington win | 19% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Chesterfield −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 46% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 54% | 1.98 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Tyler Walton · Accrington |
| 23' | 🟨 | John Fleck · Chesterfield |
| 24' | 🟨 | Shaun Whalley · Accrington |
| 26' | ⚽ | Tyler Walton · Accrington |
| 33' | 🟨 | Devon Matthews · Accrington |
| 37' | 🟨 | James Berry · Chesterfield |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tom Naylor · Chesterfield |
| 47' | ⚽ | Lee Bonis · Chesterfield |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Chesterfield |
| 62' | ⚽ | James Berry · Chesterfield |
| 75' | ⚽ | Charlie Caton · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chesterfield | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | SMH Group Stadium |
| 88' | 🟨 | Joe Bauress · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Donald Love · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 99.00 |
| 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1517.86 | 1402.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.84 | -7.73 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 60.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 14.04 | 10.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -1.46 |
| solidity v1 | 0.63 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.45 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 0.94 |