← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Tom Reeves, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe win | 44% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.05 | fair |
| Shrewsbury win | 26% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crewe −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Shrewsbury −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 56% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Owen Lunt · Crewe |
| 29' | ⚽ | Josh Ruffels · Shrewsbury |
| 36' | 🟨 | Sam Stubbs · Shrewsbury |
| 43' | 🟨 | William Boyle · Shrewsbury |
| 50' | 🟨 | Luca Hoole · Shrewsbury |
| 56' | ⚽ | Tommi O'Reilly · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Omar Bogle · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max Sanders · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Sang · Shrewsbury |
| 90' | ⚽ | Omar Bogle · Crewe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crewe | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Alexandra Stadium |
| coach days | 99.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1465.91 | 1392.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.50 | 22.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| league points | 22.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 56.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 13.94 | 13.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | -2.35 |
| solidity v1 | 0.17 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.92 | 0.35 |