← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 43% | 53% | 2.20 | value: +16% |
| Notts County win | 31% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.62 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Notts County −0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Swindon −0.25 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 56% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Conor Grant · Notts County |
| 19' | ⚽ | Aaron Drinan · Swindon |
| 21' | 🟨 | Rod McDonald · Notts County |
| 52' | 🟨 | Scott Robertson · Notts County |
| 62' | ⚽ | Alassana Jatta · Notts County |
| 63' | 🟨 | Alassana Jatta · Notts County |
| 76' | 🟨 | Oliver Norburn · Notts County |
| 77' | ⚽ | Aaron Drinan · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Filozofe Mabete · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Billy Bodin · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | County Ground |
| coach days | 81.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1368.12 | 1367.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.48 | 15.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 24.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 26.72 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |