← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Zac Kennard-Kettle, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 44% | 51% | 2.13 | value: +9% |
| Gillingham win | 29% | 26% | 3.34 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.56 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Grimsby −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Gillingham −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 47% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 53% | 2.01 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Jaze Kabia · Grimsby |
| 33' | 🟥 | Remeao Hutton · Gillingham |
| 50' | 🟨 | Kieran Green · Grimsby |
| 55' | 🟨 | Harvey Rodgers · Grimsby |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Charles Vernam · Grimsby |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jonathan Williams · Gillingham |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jonathan Williams · Gillingham |
| 63' | 🟥 | Jonathan Williams · Gillingham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Armani Little · Gillingham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ethan Coleman · Gillingham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sam Gale · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grimsby | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Blundell Park |
| 84' | 🟨 | Max Clark · Gillingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 78.00 |
| 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1488.48 | 1504.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.12 | -11.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| league points | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |