← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carl Brook, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge win | 55% | 60% | 1.73 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.83 | fair |
| Crawley Town win | 20% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town −0.75 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Cambridge −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Gavan Holohan · Crawley Town |
| 13' | ⚽ | Shayne Lavery · Cambridge |
| 49' | 🟨 | Charlie Barker · Crawley Town |
| 50' | ⚽ | Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu · Cambridge |
| 57' | ⚽ | Kylian Kouassi · Cambridge |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kabongo Tshimanga · Crawley Town |
| 72' | 🟨 | Kyle Scott · Crawley Town |
| 87' | 🟨 | Reece Brown · Crawley Town |
| 88' | 🟨 | Liam Bennett · Cambridge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jake Eastwood · Cambridge |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cambridge | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Abbey Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Jack Roles · Crawley Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 64.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1469.16 | 1427.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.15 | 4.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| league points | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |