← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: James Oldham, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bromley win | 51% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.63 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 22% | 24% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bromley −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Tranmere −0.5 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 56% | 1.93 | value: +8% |
| Under | 50% | 44% | 1.93 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Kyle Cameron · Bromley |
| 20' | 🟨 | Kyle Cameron · Bromley |
| 27' | ⚽ | Nathan Smith · Tranmere |
| 37' | ⚽ | Nicke Kabamba · Bromley |
| 38' | 🟨 | Joe Murphy · Tranmere |
| 41' | 🟨 | Josh Davison · Tranmere |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Michael Cheek · Bromley |
| 50' | ⚽ | Omari Patrick · Tranmere |
| 54' | 🟨 | Patrick Brough · Tranmere |
| 60' | ⚽ | Cameron Norman · Tranmere |
| 71' | 🟥 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bromley | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Hayes Lane |
| Byron Webster · Bromley |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jude Arthurs · Bromley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 64.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1368.57 | 1274.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.66 | -35.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.78 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.21 | 29.83 |
| state index | -0.53 | -1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.56 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |