← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Darren Drysdale, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 46% | 46% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.34 | fair |
| Gillingham win | 25% | 28% | 3.76 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham −0.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.5 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 51% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 49% | 2.34 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (og) | Sam Gale · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 34' | 🟨 | Andy Smith · Gillingham |
| 57' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 60' | 🟨 | Remeao Hutton · Gillingham |
| 63' | 🟨 | Laurence Maguire · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 63' | 🟨 | Josh Andrews · Gillingham |
| 69' | ⚽ | Callum Paterson · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 76' | ⚽ | Sebastian Palmer-Houlden · Gillingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan Leko · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonathan Williams · Gillingham |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadium MK |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 64.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1277.02 | 1351.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.88 | 15.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| league points | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 30.00 | 28.78 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |