← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carl Brook, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 64% | 61% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.45 | value: +6% |
| Cheltenham win | 15% | 16% | 6.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Grimsby −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Cheltenham −1 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Liam Kinsella · Cheltenham |
| 19' | ⚽ | Isaac Hutchinson · Cheltenham |
| 39' | ⚽ | Jamie Walker · Grimsby |
| 41' | 🟨 | Harry Pell · Cheltenham |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jamie Walker · Grimsby |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lee Angol · Cheltenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Harry Pell · Cheltenham |
| 45' | 🟥 | Harry Pell · Cheltenham |
| 50' | 🟨 | Lee Angol · Cheltenham |
| 50' | 🟥 | Lee Angol · Cheltenham |
| 54' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 3 |
| 13 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grimsby | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Blundell Park |
| — · Grimsby |
| 55' | 🟨 | Isaac Hutchinson · Cheltenham |
| 59' | ⚽ | Jayden Sweeney · Grimsby |
| 62' | ⚽ | Charles Vernam · Grimsby |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jayden Sweeney · Grimsby |
| 83' | ⚽ | Evan Khouri · Grimsby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 57.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1468.43 | 1388.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.55 | -33.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | -1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.47 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |