← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephen Parkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 67% | 68% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 5.03 | value: +12% |
| Newport County win | 14% | 9% | 7.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Newport County −1.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 60% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 40% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Liam Mandeville · Chesterfield |
| 34' | ⚽ | Will Grigg · Chesterfield |
| 43' | ⚽ | Will Dickson · Chesterfield |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Stirk · Chesterfield |
| 65' | 🟨 | Habeeb Ogunneye · Newport County |
| 77' | 🟨 | John Fleck · Chesterfield |
| 80' | ⚽ | Michael Spellman · Newport County |
| 83' | 🟨 | Michael Spellman · Newport County |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ronan Darcy · Chesterfield |
| 88' | ⚽ | Dilan Markanday · Chesterfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chesterfield | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | SMH Group Stadium |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 57.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1355.08 | 1170.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.57 | -29.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.60 | 21.51 |
| state index | -0.43 | -1.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.04 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |