← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Scott Jackson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 63% | 60% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.54 | value: +4% |
| Accrington win | 16% | 17% | 5.89 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −1.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Milton Keynes Dons −1.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Liam Kelly · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 19' | ⚽ | Isaac Sinclair · Accrington |
| 27' | 🟨 | Isaac Heath · Accrington |
| 38' | 🟨 | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luke Offord · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 48' | ⚽ | Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 52' | 🟨 | Connor Lemonheigh-Evans · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 73' | ⚽ | Charlie Caton · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke Offord · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium MK |
| 90' | 🟥 | Luke Offord · Milton Keynes Dons |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 50.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.68 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1279.33 | 1238.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.42 | -0.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| league points | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 62.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | — |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.41 | 26.17 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |