← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ben Toner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 61% | 57% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.32 | value: +8% |
| Crawley Town win | 16% | 18% | 5.75 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Chesterfield −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Charlie Barker · Crawley Town |
| 9' | ⚽ | Harry McKirdy · Crawley Town |
| 20' | 🟨 | Ronan Darcy · Chesterfield |
| 36' | 🟨 | Harry McKirdy · Crawley Town |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry McKirdy · Crawley Town |
| 45' | 🟨 | Geraldo Bajrami · Crawley Town |
| 49' | 🟨 | Kyle Scott · Crawley Town |
| 51' | 🟨 | Lewis Gordon · Chesterfield |
| 54' | 🟨 | Armando Dobra · Chesterfield |
| 56' | ⚽ | Dylan Duffy · Chesterfield |
| 58' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chesterfield | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | SMH Group Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Armando Dobra · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Lewis · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Naylor · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harvey Davies · Crawley Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 29.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1536.98 | 1423.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.21 | -55.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| league points | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | — |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.47 | -1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.92 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |