← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Wed, Aug 20, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Drysdale
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 46% | 57% | 2.08 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.43 | fair |
| Shrewsbury win | 26% | 23% | 3.59 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury −0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Notts County −0.5 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 49% | 2.10 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Matthew Dennis · Notts County |
| 12' | 🟨 | Oliver Norburn · Notts County |
| 20' | ⚽ | Sonny Aljofree · Notts County |
| 32' | ⚽ | John Marquis · Shrewsbury |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sam Stubbs · Shrewsbury |
| 47' | ⚽ | Nick Tsaroulla · Notts County |
| 78' | 🟨 | Conor Grant · Notts County |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kellan Gordon · Notts County |
| 82' | ⚽ | Conor Grant · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Nurse · Shrewsbury |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Notts County | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Meadow Lane |
| 🟨 |
| John Marquis · Shrewsbury |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 50.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1492.31 | 1389.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.65 | -22.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | — |
| league points | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.53 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.60 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |