← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Tue, Aug 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Hicks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 41% | 35% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.14 | value: +7% |
| Gillingham win | 29% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Chesterfield +0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 61% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 39% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Armani Little · Gillingham |
| 37' | 🟨 | Josh Andrews · Gillingham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lenni Rae Cirino · Gillingham |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Armani Little · Gillingham |
| 53' | ⚽ | Armando Dobra · Chesterfield |
| 56' | ⚽ | Lenni Rae Cirino · Gillingham |
| 62' | 🟨 | Vontae Daley-Campbell · Chesterfield |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ethan Coleman · Gillingham |
| 73' | 🟨 | Elliott Nevitt · Gillingham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marcus Wyllie · Gillingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| coach days | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1308.73 | 1376.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.52 | 49.41 |
| eye test v1 | -1.69 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.32 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| league points | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.94 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 28.21 | 27.59 |
| state index | -0.17 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |