← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Tue, Aug 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 37% | 33% | 2.65 | fair |
| Crewe win | 36% | 38% | 2.66 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Crewe +0 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 59% | 1.88 | value: +10% |
| Over | 48% | 41% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ (og) | Toby Mullarkey · Crewe |
| 22' | ⚽ | Josh March · Crewe |
| 50' | ⚽ | Calum Agius · Crewe |
| 55' | ⚽ | Reece Hutchinson · Crewe |
| 56' | 🟨 | Will Davies · Fleetwood Town |
| 57' | 🟨 | Shaun Rooney · Fleetwood Town |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jay Lynch · Fleetwood Town |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jack Powell · Crewe |
| 67' | 🟨 | Owen Lunt · Crewe |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ched Evans · Fleetwood Town |
| 76' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| Mickey Demetriou · Crewe |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | James Norwood · Fleetwood Town |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tom Booth · Crewe |
| 83' | 🟨 | James Norwood · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Morrison · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1501.17 | 1487.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.38 | 12.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.73 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.38 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |