← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Hicks
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Oldham win | 38% | 41% | 2.51 | fair |
| Colchester win | 32% | 33% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Colchester −0.25 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Oldham −0.25 | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 54% | 1.59 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 46% | 2.40 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand