← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere win | 51% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
| Crewe win | 23% | 23% | 4.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tranmere −0.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Crewe −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Tom Davies · Tranmere |
| 30' | 🟨 | Kristian Dennis · Tranmere |
| 69' | 🟥 | Tom Lowery · Crewe |
| 84' | 🟨 | Regan Hendry · Tranmere |
| 87' | ⚽ | Kristian Dennis · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke McGee · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Davison · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟨 | Regan Hendry · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟥 | Regan Hendry · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adrien Thibaut · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟥 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tranmere | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Prenton Park |
| Zac Williams · Crewe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 84.00 | 907.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1238.83 | 1305.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.29 | -22.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 47.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 45.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.02 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.82 | 25.10 |
| state index | -0.54 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |