← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Mackey
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow win | 44% | 42% | 2.18 | fair |
| Bromley win | 30% | 29% | 3.18 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.70 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barrow −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Bromley −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 58% | 1.85 | value: +7% |
| Over | 48% | 42% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Daniel Imray · Bromley |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ashley Charles · Bromley |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Ben Whitfield · Barrow |
| 46' | 🟨 | Aaron Pressley · Barrow |
| 50' | ⚽ | Michael Cheek · Bromley |
| 53' | ⚽ | Isaac Fletcher · Barrow |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jordan Williams · Barrow |
| 75' | ⚽ | Nicke Kabamba · Bromley |
| 85' | ⚽ | Elliot Newby · Barrow |
| 90' | 🟨 | Theo Vassell · Barrow |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barrow | Bromley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | SO Legal Stadium |
| Deji Elerewe · Bromley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Omar Sowunmi · Bromley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 115.00 | 1517.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.89 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1306.88 | 1369.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.51 | 9.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.77 |
| league points | 57.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 59.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.68 | 28.38 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |