← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Jackson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford win | 38% | 26% | 2.50 | fair |
| Chesterfield win | 34% | 45% | 2.82 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Chesterfield +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 44% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Bobby Pointon · Bradford |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Antoni Sarcevic · Bradford |
| 30' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Chesterfield |
| 33' | 🟨 | Liam Mandeville · Chesterfield |
| 43' | 🟨 | Alexander Pattison · Bradford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Colclough · Chesterfield |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jenson Metcalfe · Chesterfield |
| 49' | ⚽ | Alexander Pattison · Bradford |
| 63' | 🟨 | Harvey Araujo · Chesterfield |
| 71' | ⚽ | Will Grigg · Chesterfield |
| 75' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chesterfield | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | SMH Group Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Sam Walker · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Olakigbe · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jamie Walker · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Shepherd · Bradford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Liam Mandeville · Chesterfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1175.00 | 537.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.14 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1326.76 | 1399.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.32 | -21.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| league points | 63.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.63 | -1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.09 | 26.49 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.55 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |