← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Woods
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 49% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.55 | fair |
| Carlisle win | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carlisle +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Port Vale +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Ben Barclay · Carlisle |
| -5' | 🟨 | Matthew Dennis · Carlisle |
| -5' | 🟥 | Matthew Dennis · Carlisle |
| 36' | ⚽ | Georgie Kelly · Carlisle |
| 43' | ⚽ | Matthew Dennis · Carlisle |
| 49' | ⚽ | Aaron Hayden · Carlisle |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jayden Stockley · Port Vale |
| 68' | 🟨 | George Byers · Port Vale |
| 70' | ⚽ | Sam Hart · Port Vale |
| 79' | 🟨 | Stephen Wearne · Carlisle |
| 85' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Brunton Park |
| 🟨 |
| Matthew Dennis · Carlisle |
| 86' | 🟨 | Aaron Hayden · Carlisle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Terell Thomas · Carlisle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 76.00 | 442.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1219.27 | 1410.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.53 | 37.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| league points | 37.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.40 | 27.30 |
| state index | -0.73 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |