← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Byrne
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 55% | 54% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| Bromley win | 19% | 21% | 5.31 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bromley −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Port Vale −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 54% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 46% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Jack Shorrock · Port Vale |
| 10' | 🟨 | Michael Cheek · Bromley |
| 28' | ⚽ | Lorent Tolaj · Port Vale |
| 33' | 🟨 | Kamarl Grant · Bromley |
| 53' | 🟨 | Omar Sowunmi · Bromley |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ryan Croasdale · Port Vale |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ashley Charles · Bromley |
| 66' | ⚽ | George Byers · Port Vale |
| 68' | ⚽ | Lorent Tolaj · Port Vale |
| 79' | 🟨 | Byron Webster · Bromley |
| 82' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Bromley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| ⚽ |
| Ryan Croasdale · Port Vale |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jude Arthurs · Bromley |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ben Thompson · Bromley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 436.00 | 1503.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1395.42 | 1368.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.92 | -21.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.80 |
| league points | 73.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 56.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -1.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.74 | 25.71 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |