← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere win | 37% | 34% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Accrington win | 31% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tranmere +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Accrington +0 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 57% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 43% | 2.54 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Benjamin Woods · Accrington |
| 24' | ⚽ | Tyler Walton · Accrington |
| 42' | ⚽ | Josh Woods · Accrington |
| 61' | 🟨 | Kieron Morris · Tranmere |
| 77' | 🟨 | Benjamin Woods · Accrington |
| 77' | 🟨 | Regan Hendry · Tranmere |
| 78' | ⚽ | Omari Patrick · Tranmere |
| 87' | ⚽ | Kristian Dennis · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jake Thomas Batty · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samuel Taylor · Tranmere |
| 90' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Omari Patrick · Tranmere |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 407.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1234.05 | 1246.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.48 | 52.03 |
| eye test v1 | -1.96 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | — |
| league points | 42.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.02 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.41 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 29.41 |
| state index | -1.34 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |