← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford win | 43% | 41% | 2.21 | fair |
| Swindon win | 29% | 30% | 3.27 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Swindon +0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 52% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 48% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Calum Kavanagh · Bradford |
| 10' | ⚽ | Calum Kavanagh · Bradford |
| 14' | 🟥 | Richard Smallwood · Bradford |
| 22' | ⚽ (og) | Neill Byrne · Swindon |
| 30' | 🟨 | Brandon Khela · Bradford |
| 35' | ⚽ | Calum Kavanagh · Bradford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kabongo Tshimanga · Swindon |
| 62' | ⚽ | Harry Smith · Swindon |
| 64' | 🟨 | Brad Halliday · Bradford |
| 77' | ⚽ | Brad Halliday · Bradford |
| 80' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 27 | Shots | 9 |
| 12 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | The Nigel Eady County Ground |
| 🟨 |
| Jack Shepherd · Bradford |
| 82' | 🟨 | Daniel Butterworth · Swindon |
| 82' | 🟨 | Tayo Adaramola · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Smith · Swindon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harry Smith · Swindon |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Jack Shepherd · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 193.00 | 528.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1335.42 | 1413.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.44 | -11.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.50 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 54.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.36 | 27.06 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |