← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miles
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 54% | 50% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 36% | 3.62 | value: +29% |
| Morecambe win | 20% | 14% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morecambe −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Grimsby −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 46% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 54% | 2.16 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Paul Lewis · Morecambe |
| 24' | ⚽ | Kieran Green · Grimsby |
| 30' | ⚽ | Andrew Dallas · Morecambe |
| 39' | 🟨 | Géza Dávid Turi · Grimsby |
| 40' | 🟨 | Andrew Dallas · Morecambe |
| 45' | 🟨 | Denver Hume · Grimsby |
| 48' | ⚽ | Luca Barrington · Grimsby |
| 67' | 🟨 | David Tutonda · Morecambe |
| 77' | 🟨 | Douglas Tharme · Grimsby |
| 80' | ⚽ | Kieran Green · Grimsby |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grimsby | Morecambe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Blundell Park |
| 🟨 |
| Callum Jones · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 521.00 | 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1304.84 | 1223.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.86 | 17.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 62.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | -1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.21 | 27.70 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |