← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Tue, Apr 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 48% | 57% | 2.00 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.33 | fair |
| Walsall win | 24% | 18% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Walsall −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Doncaster −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 50% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 50% | 2.16 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | George Broadbent · Doncaster |
| 16' | ⚽ | Luke Molyneux · Doncaster |
| 18' | ⚽ | Taylor Allen · Walsall |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jamie Sterry · Doncaster |
| 39' | 🟨 | Evan Weir · Walsall |
| 62' | 🟨 | Liam Gordon · Walsall |
| 67' | 🟨 | Teddy Sharman-Lowe · Doncaster |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jamie Jellis · Walsall |
| 84' | ⚽ | Billy Sharp · Doncaster |
| 89' | 🟨 | Oisin McEntee · Walsall |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Doncaster | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Eco-Power Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Danny Johnson · Walsall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 701.00 | 731.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1389.98 | 1371.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.86 | -26.04 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| league points | 66.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 59.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 3.16 | 3.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | -1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 26.01 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.31 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |