← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Tue, Apr 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Drysdale
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 36% | 33% | 2.66 | fair |
| Accrington win | 34% | 35% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Accrington +0 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 59% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 41% | 2.48 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Mark Helm · Fleetwood Town |
| 27' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Fleetwood Town |
| 31' | 🟨 | Louie Marsh · Fleetwood Town |
| 39' | 🟨 | Conor Grant · Accrington |
| 45' | 🟨 | Benn Ward · Accrington |
| 52' | ⚽ | Benjamin Woods · Accrington |
| 62' | ⚽ | Phoenix Patterson · Fleetwood Town |
| 85' | ⚽ (og) | Conor Grant · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jake Thomas Batty · Accrington |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mackenzie Hunt · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| coach days | 396.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 4.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1259.87 | 1354.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.11 | 15.14 |
| eye test v1 | -1.22 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| league points | 42.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.26 | 3.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.39 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.27 | 26.40 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |