← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 38% | 37% | 2.58 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.84 | fair |
| Gillingham win | 29% | 31% | 3.30 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham −0.25 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Accrington −0.25 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 69% | 1.44 | fair |
| Over | 33% | 31% | 2.88 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Benn Ward · Accrington |
| 43' | 🟨 | Sam Gale · Gillingham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Benn Ward · Accrington |
| 56' | 🟨 | Devon Matthews · Accrington |
| 58' | 🟨 | Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh · Accrington |
| 60' | 🟨 | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
| 77' | 🟨 | Benjamin Woods · Accrington |
| 77' | 🟨 | Armani Little · Gillingham |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tyler Walton · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam Coyle · Accrington |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 22 | Fouls | 11 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Max Clark · Gillingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 379.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1432.17 | 1416.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.01 | 0.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.61 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.60 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 39.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.99 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |