← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 49% | 50% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.67 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Cheltenham −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 53% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 47% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jordan Thomas · Cheltenham |
| 34' | 🟨 | Sam Stubbs · Cheltenham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Will Wright · Swindon |
| 48' | ⚽ | Timothée Dieng · Cheltenham |
| 54' | ⚽ (og) | Will Wright · Cheltenham |
| 58' | 🟨 | Valintino Adedokun · Cheltenham |
| 63' | 🟨 | Tom Bradbury · Cheltenham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Tom Bradbury · Cheltenham |
| 66' | 🟥 | Tom Bradbury · Cheltenham |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Kabongo Tshimanga · Swindon |
| 71' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Nigel Eady County Ground |
| 🟨 |
| Ollie Clarke · Swindon |
| 79' | 🟨 | Kabongo Tshimanga · Swindon |
| 79' | 🟨 | Timothée Dieng · Cheltenham |
| 88' | ⚽ | Ollie Clarke · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 165.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1315.97 | 1332.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.15 | -10.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 46.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 60.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |