← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Tue, Mar 4, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Bannister
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham win | 45% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
| Newport County win | 26% | 24% | 3.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Newport County +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 62% | 1.69 | value: +4% |
| Over | 44% | 38% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Bobby Kamwa · Newport County |
| 15' | 🟨 | Jaden Warner · Newport County |
| 27' | ⚽ | Bobby Kamwa · Newport County |
| 30' | ⚽ | Bobby Kamwa · Newport County |
| 62' | 🟨 | Andy Smith · Gillingham |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jimmy Morgan · Gillingham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Max Ehmer · Gillingham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Joseph Gbode · Gillingham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sam Gale · Gillingham |
| 89' | 🟨 | Courtney Baker-Richardson · Newport County |
| 89' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newport County | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Rodney Parade |
| 🟨 |
| Cameron Antwi · Newport County |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Clarke · Newport County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Armani Little · Gillingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elliott Nevitt · Gillingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 246.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1431.10 | 1414.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.73 | 4.68 |
| eye test v1 | -1.17 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| league points | 40.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |